Secular Headwinds Argue For Dynamic Exposure
Static asset asset allocation approaches ill-equipped for new environment
A Systematic Approach To Dynamic Asset Allocation
Introducing our Blue Heron Fixed Income & Equity Models
Observations
Optimism Persists As Investor Fears Fade
It takes bulls to have a bull market and right now the crowd continues to embrace stocks.
Chart from the Day: One > 2000
Apple eclipsing the Russell 2000 tells a tale of two divergent markets
Embracing a New Season of Growth
It’s hard to harvest what never gets planted
Market Insights
Bonds Catch A Bid As Breadth Breakdown Continues
Key Takeaway: Falling bond yields could support an improving liquidity backdrop later this Spring, but for now US equities are caught between a modern day Scylla (rapidly deflating mega-caps) and Charybdis (broad market weakness). The inability of the post-election rally to produce a new breadth thrust continues to loom large and the absence of a […]
Poor Breadth and Fading Optimism Weighing On The Prospects For Stocks
Key Takeaway: Sentiment has slipped to neutral as the Weight of the Evidence continues to tilt toward Risk and away from Opportunity. It is looking more and more like a risk-off environment. Liquidity: We have entered a new regime. The upward trend in bond yields is the most persistent that has been in the past […]
Most Stocks Are Moving Higher
When the long-term trend in the Value Line Geometric Index is rising, it doesn’t make sense to claim that just a handful of stocks are supporting the indexes.
Stocks Flourish After Persistent Pessimism
Weight of the Evidence tilts toward Opportunity
S&P 500 Struggling With Resistance But Bull Behavior Perists
Key Takeaway: The S&P 500 has been churning over the past few weeks and the 6th longest stretch in history without a new all-time remains intact. But based on our checklist, we are still seeing bull market behavior. The S&P 500 has been unable to get through resistance (i.e. the Jan 2021 all-time high) and […]
Giving Back or Getting Going
Breakdowns beneath the surface suggest index-level strength is built on a cracked foundation
Not Seeing Eye to Eye
Amid near-term noise, taking a step back provides perspective
Portfolio Applications
Stocks Slip To Third Place
Blue Heron Systematic Models Key Takeaways:Â While our Blue Heron Systematic Portfolios are updated monthly, the models they are based on use weekly data. With that data shifting in meaningful ways, we are providing a mid-month update that could preview coming for the portfolios. Stocks have been slipping versus Commodities and have now fallen behind Bonds […]
Fear Subsides And Weakness Remains
Stocks have a long history of coming under pressure in the absence of either Fear or Strength. I don’t expect this time to be any different.
New Highs Continue To Accumulate
Tactical model remains bullish on stocks
Amid Broad Strength, Asset Allocation Shifts Reflect Changing Leadership
Relative improvement pushes model to overweight commodities
Uptick In Volatility To Challenge Resiliency Of Bull Market Behavior
Quiet strength is giving way to a test of the recent rally
Tech Strength Evident Across The Board
Technology relative leadership is not just a mega-cap story
US Turns Higher
Tech-fueled strength is helping the US join most of the rest of the world in an index-level uptrend.